A brief poker player's guide to seeking truth in a world of liars.

(AKA: How to analyze the news)

Being a human is a confusing business. How on earth are you supposed to know what’s going on? What is true? What is good? How are we to know?

When we are very young, we rely on adults (or, heaven help us — other children) to tell us what is true and right and good. But very quickly, we discover to our horror that adults often don’t know what’s true.

Even worse, sometimes they know what’s true, but they deceive us. Sometimes they even think they do so for our own good. And even worse than that, they sometimes deceive us and don’t even know they are doing so. Not consciously, anyway. They are just promoting a narrative from their worldview or ideology.

Fortunately, when we grow up and become adults ourselves, we never fall into those traps, right? Ha.

Some people stay “children” their whole lives when it comes to knowing what’s true and what isn’t. They discover newspapers or television shows they like and rely on these people to tell them what’s true and what’s right.

Some people never figure out that these adults also are often wrong, lying, or ideologically blinded. I almost don’t blame them. What on earth are you supposed to do when you realize that the people you rely on to tell you the truth… aren’t?

What do you do when you realize how much Pfizer is spending advertising on this network? Or when you realize how much “access” this other network has to so many ex-military and ex-CIA personnel? What do you do when you realize that most talking heads on the TV are telling you what they want to be true, rather than what is true?

Because it would be handy to know what’s true, right? Exactly why do eggs cost so much right now? Is it somebody’s fault? Who? Did the president really call neo-Nazis and white supremacists “fine people”? Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines? Is my Ford Bronco ruining the world my kids are going to inherit? How did JFK die? Is our CIA toppling regimes around the world? If so, why? Is it a good thing? When the people on the TV say, “American interests overseas”, what do they mean? Are these things in my interest? Who has their hand in my pocket? What on earth can I do about it?

But the thing is, it’s a big world, and you have direct evidence of very little of it. That mean’s you have to try to use the information coming at you from these demonstrated liars we call other human beings.

But how? Is it hopeless? Do we have to give up on understanding what is “true”?

No. Not hopeless at all.

As I sometimes share with you all, I used to play poker for a living. I’m very comfortable navigating an environment where everybody is “telling a story”, and the consequences of not knowing what is true are financially devastating.

Those skills work well for navigating the media landscape, too.

First of all, every time you see a headline, hear a sound bite, read an article, or catch a speech from a politician, immediately understand that you aren’t being told the truth. Rather, you are being told a story. Maybe some elements of that story have some vague relationship to the truth, but maybe not.

Second, start cataloguing all the various people and institutions and organizations that are out there trying to tell you “the news” of the day. Analyze them. Figure out what their biases are. What is their world view? What do they want to be true? If they are lying, in what directions are they likely to be lying? What are their blind spots?

If you want to evaluate a story, you have to come to know the story-teller.

Once you’ve done that, you can start to triangulate towards truth, at least a little bit. Gather as many different kinds of narratives into your news feed as you can stomach. Realize that none of them can be trusted, but perhaps in the aggregate, these “broken compasses” can be useful.

Be skeptical of all truth claims at first. Wait. Wait. Wait some more. After a week or two, check back on that truth claim. Was it amplified anywhere? Did more supporting evidence come in for it? Or did it fade away? You’ll notice that the most “shocking” headlines usually fade away into nothingness.

Oh, and don’t just blindly trust “The Science”. Scientists are just people. And usually the reporter has butchered the truth of the scientific story they are telling, anyway.

Beware of “studies”. Most aren’t reproducible. Due to errors in methodology or data analysis — or pure malicious dishonesty — most studies amount to nothing more than lies in lab coats.

That’s not to say that all scientific claims are lies. Hardly. Just be very suspicious of new claims. Be even more suspicious of claims that seem to serve some political or financial interest.

And here’s a big piece of wisdom: be comfortable with not always knowing the truth.

At the poker table, I can’t always identify the exact cards my opponent is holding, but if I am wise, attentive, and diligent, I can often narrow it down to a range of possibilities. Sometimes that’s the best you can do.

And that’s good! Most possibilities excluded and rough probabilities assigned to the remaining possibilities is a much better landscape to navigate than knowing nothing at all!

Plus, simply understanding that you don’t know something is very useful and actionable. Understanding what you don’t know can keep you out of a whole lot of trouble. Mr. Magoo does surprisingly well as he confidently walks around his preposterously dangerous world. It’s fun (and funny) to watch, but it’s not a recommended strategy.

We can do better. Open your eyes. Be skeptical of truth claims. Identify biases. Gather multiple narratives. Triangulate. Make educated guesses, but don’t pretend to know what you can’t know.

It’s hard work being a grown-up. But it’s rewarding too.

Naturally,

Adam

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