On this "crossover" episode with the great Bob Murphy, Adam shares with Bob a pet peeve: People talk (and think) about probability all wrong. Along the way, they talk aliens, simulation theory, economics, and much much more!
00:00 — Intro. Bob shows a little jealousy. It's very cute.
02:21 — Adam lays out his case that how we deal with odds and probability is often very sloppy and prone to error. The Drake equation comes under heavy fire.
08:47 — Bob responds with a few supporting examples from economics and a little general pushback to Adam's position.
26:51 — Bob points out a minor flaw in Adam's presentation that forces an important clarification. As it turns out, Captain America was probably really good at shooting craps! Adam makes an appeal to the law of large numbers to show that the throw of a die is "close" to a perfectly closed system. Bob makes a devastatingly insightful point that nicely enhances these concepts. Plus, Rothbard!
39:48 — Adam takes a swipe at people smarter than him (Nick Bostrom and Elon Musk) who say very silly things about simulation theory. That's not what probability means!
42:31 — Bob responds and gives some other very similar examples. Along the way, the usefulness of such lines of thinking are illustrated — so long as we don't fool ourselves by making erroneous probability claims. Also: Boltzmann brains, Descartes's evil demon, and brains in vats!
59:01 — Bob throws Artificial Intelligence into the mix, which is always interesting.
50:02 — Outro. Thanks for watching!
Adam on X: https://x.com/Rerazer
Bob on X: https://x.com/BobMurphyEcon
Adam's other podcast: Natural Order Podcast
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